Humanity by Jonathan Glover

Author:Jonathan Glover [Glover, Jonathan]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: A Moral History of the Twentieth Century
Publisher: Yale University Press
Published: 1999-12-14T22:00:00+00:00

1 ESCAPING THE HOBBESIAN TRAP: POLITICS

The central trap of war is Hobbesian fear: ‘the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta’. The response to the fear is to seek allies and to build up armaments. Build some Dreadnoughts. Close the missile gap. The other side is alarmed in turn and the first twists of the spiral have begun.

Consider the dollar auction.1 A dollar bill will go to the highest bidder, even if the bid is far less than a dollar. But, if you are the second highest bidder, you have to pay what you bid and you get nothing for it.

A low bid, say five cents, seems worth putting in. As the only bidder, you will make ninety-five cents. If someone trumps your bid, you lose only five cents. The gamble looks good and so you bid. Your bid is trumped by a ten-cent bid. It looks worth going to fifteen: you will still make eighty-five cents rather than lose five. The logic of this sends the bidding up on both sides. If you bid ninety-five cents, your rival has reason to bid a dollar: better break even than lose ninety cents. But you then have a reason for bidding a dollar and five cents: better lose five cents than ninety-five. Trying to escape with the smaller rather than the larger loss traps you both into ever bigger bids.

An arms race can be a trap like the dollar auction. Investing in some weapons to dominate an opponent may seem a good investment. When he has responded, it may seem worth paying to be a bit ahead. Both sides may be in a trap which neither dares be the first to leave. But the dollar auction threatens only bankruptcy, while an arms race threatens the 1914 outcome.

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